
Products · Weather and climate
AI Precipitation and Temperature Forecasting
Global AI weather models, combined and corrected for your territory.
Operational forecasting platform; pressure-level correction in development
Overview
What will precipitation and temperature be at this place over the next ten days, and how certain is it?
A forecasting platform that runs the current generation of global AI weather models in one environment, benchmarks each of them for the target territory, combines them with a neural network that learns the best weight of every model for every location, variable, level, season and lead time, and corrects the gridded result to the station scale with a graph neural network trained on the territory's own observation network. Ten-day forecasts of precipitation, temperature, humidity and wind, with uncertainty, delivered through an interactive map platform and an API.
- 10 days, 6-hour steps
- Forecast horizon
- 8, run as one ensemble
- Global AI models
- Graph neural network on stations
- Local correction
- Deterministic and probabilistic
- Output
System architecture
Schematic of the main components, from inputs to delivered outputs.
Inputs
- Global reanalysis (ERA5)
- NWP initial conditions (IFS, GFS)
- Station observations
- Terrain and land-use covariates
Global models
- GraphCast
- FourCastNet
- Pangu-Weather
- Aurora
- FuXi and others
Regional intelligence
- Territory benchmark
- Context-aware ensemble weights
- Graph neural network station layer
- Uncertainty estimation
Outputs
- Gridded 10-day forecasts
- Station-level forecasts
- Model scorecards
- Map platform and API
How it works
Pipeline and maturity of each stage
- 01
Data pipeline
OperationalAutomated retrieval of initial conditions from global operational sources, an adapter layer that harmonises variable names, grids and physical definitions across sources, and computation of variables some models need that open sources do not provide.
- 02
Global AI weather models in one environment
OperationalThe current generation of neural weather models, among them GraphCast, FourCastNet, Pangu-Weather, Aurora and FuXi, runs in a single reproducible environment with the operational numerical model as a reference baseline. A ten-day global forecast runs in seconds on a single GPU.
- 03
Territory benchmark
Developed and evaluatedAn evaluation framework scores every model for the target territory by region, month, pressure level and lead time, in two regimes: operational initial conditions and clean reanalysis.
- 04
Optimised ensemble
Developed and evaluatedA neural network takes the context and outputs the weight of each model, trained to minimise the combined forecast error. Weights sum to one, and a rule-based representation keeps the weighting interpretable for meteorologists.
- 05
Graph neural network station layer
Developed and evaluatedAn encoder-processor-decoder graph network maps the ensemble grid to the territory's observation stations and learns the remaining systematic bias, with edges that connect stations by proximity, elevation difference and climatic similarity.
- 06
Evaluation for generalisation
Developed and evaluatedTemporal hold-out, spatial hold-out and their combination, with deterministic, anomaly-correlation and probabilistic metrics, so the platform is trusted where no station exists.
- 07
Interactive forecast platform
OperationalA map-based platform with forecast, current-state and history modes, comparison against the operational baseline, vector wind fields as particle flow, probabilistic output with uncertainty, and a request-driven backend.
- 08
Pressure-level correction
In developmentExtending the station layer from surface variables to upper-air fields such as geopotential height and wind.
Data used
- ERA5 reanalysis
- ECMWF IFS and GFS initial conditions
- National and regional station networks
- Soil-moisture networks
- Terrain and land-use covariates
Methods and models
- Neural weather models (GraphCast, FourCastNet, Pangu-Weather, Aurora, FuXi)
- Context-aware ensemble weighting
- Graph neural network bias correction
- Operational and reanalysis benchmarking
- Temporal and spatial hold-out validation
Outputs
- Gridded ten-day forecasts of temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind
- Station-level corrected forecasts with uncertainty
- Model scorecards by variable, lead time, region and season
- Interactive map platform and forecast API
Who it is for
- Reservoir management, flood warning and watershed planning
- Crop water requirement and farm-level decisions
- Extreme-event early warning
- Energy load and renewable generation forecasting
- Road and airport weather safety
More in Weather and climate
All weather and climate products- Water-area forecastHub platform
- Drought, flood and fire-weather outlooksIn development

From space. For Earth.
Start with ARASAT
Tell us what you need to monitor, understand or protect. Our team works with you from the first conversation to a running program.