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Products · Weather and climate

AI Precipitation and Temperature Forecasting

Global AI weather models, combined and corrected for your territory.

Hub platform

Operational forecasting platform; pressure-level correction in development

Overview

What will precipitation and temperature be at this place over the next ten days, and how certain is it?

A forecasting platform that runs the current generation of global AI weather models in one environment, benchmarks each of them for the target territory, combines them with a neural network that learns the best weight of every model for every location, variable, level, season and lead time, and corrects the gridded result to the station scale with a graph neural network trained on the territory's own observation network. Ten-day forecasts of precipitation, temperature, humidity and wind, with uncertainty, delivered through an interactive map platform and an API.

10 days, 6-hour steps
Forecast horizon
8, run as one ensemble
Global AI models
Graph neural network on stations
Local correction
Deterministic and probabilistic
Output

System architecture

Schematic of the main components, from inputs to delivered outputs.

How it works

Pipeline and maturity of each stage

  1. 01

    Data pipeline

    Operational

    Automated retrieval of initial conditions from global operational sources, an adapter layer that harmonises variable names, grids and physical definitions across sources, and computation of variables some models need that open sources do not provide.

  2. 02

    Global AI weather models in one environment

    Operational

    The current generation of neural weather models, among them GraphCast, FourCastNet, Pangu-Weather, Aurora and FuXi, runs in a single reproducible environment with the operational numerical model as a reference baseline. A ten-day global forecast runs in seconds on a single GPU.

  3. 03

    Territory benchmark

    Developed and evaluated

    An evaluation framework scores every model for the target territory by region, month, pressure level and lead time, in two regimes: operational initial conditions and clean reanalysis.

  4. 04

    Optimised ensemble

    Developed and evaluated

    A neural network takes the context and outputs the weight of each model, trained to minimise the combined forecast error. Weights sum to one, and a rule-based representation keeps the weighting interpretable for meteorologists.

  5. 05

    Graph neural network station layer

    Developed and evaluated

    An encoder-processor-decoder graph network maps the ensemble grid to the territory's observation stations and learns the remaining systematic bias, with edges that connect stations by proximity, elevation difference and climatic similarity.

  6. 06

    Evaluation for generalisation

    Developed and evaluated

    Temporal hold-out, spatial hold-out and their combination, with deterministic, anomaly-correlation and probabilistic metrics, so the platform is trusted where no station exists.

  7. 07

    Interactive forecast platform

    Operational

    A map-based platform with forecast, current-state and history modes, comparison against the operational baseline, vector wind fields as particle flow, probabilistic output with uncertainty, and a request-driven backend.

  8. 08

    Pressure-level correction

    In development

    Extending the station layer from surface variables to upper-air fields such as geopotential height and wind.

Data used

  • ERA5 reanalysis
  • ECMWF IFS and GFS initial conditions
  • National and regional station networks
  • Soil-moisture networks
  • Terrain and land-use covariates

Methods and models

  • Neural weather models (GraphCast, FourCastNet, Pangu-Weather, Aurora, FuXi)
  • Context-aware ensemble weighting
  • Graph neural network bias correction
  • Operational and reanalysis benchmarking
  • Temporal and spatial hold-out validation

Outputs

  • Gridded ten-day forecasts of temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind
  • Station-level corrected forecasts with uncertainty
  • Model scorecards by variable, lead time, region and season
  • Interactive map platform and forecast API

Who it is for

  • Reservoir management, flood warning and watershed planning
  • Crop water requirement and farm-level decisions
  • Extreme-event early warning
  • Energy load and renewable generation forecasting
  • Road and airport weather safety

More in Weather and climate

All weather and climate products
  • Water-area forecastHub platform
  • Drought, flood and fire-weather outlooksIn development

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